Speaker
Description
Today, the collection of carbon plays an increasing role in the debate about climate change mitigation especially in future energy production. In recent years, fundamental research in carbon capture and storage (CCTS) technologies was particularly dynamic especially in direct air capture technologies (Renfrew, Starr, and Strasser 2020; Breyer et al. 2019). It is seen as a large-scale solution in many energy and climate scenarios, including those of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)(Huppmann et al. 2019; Byers et al. 2022). However, in reality many of the pilot projects have provided heterogenous results, and challenges remain to scale these small pilots to large scale CCTS(Herold, Rüster, and Hirschhausen 2010; von Hirschhausen, Herold, and Oei 2012). This paper looks at over 100 of these pilote projects, and attempts a classification in terms of R&D dynamics, size, and other technical characteristics. This is useful to asses the potential of DAC, and also to establish the link to potential downstream activies, e.g. the use of CO2
We have collected a unique dataset on 104 pilot projects in Direct Air Capture (DAC) and potential applications (Direct Aircapture Coalition 2024), as well as data on the remaining gap for rolling out this technology at scale. We perform a technological assessment and a statistical analysis in respect to technologies, applications, companies, and financial indicators.
Detailed analysis of the data reveals a heterogenous picture (see figures) compared to predicted usage in IPCC – Scenarios. In terms of regional distribution, the US leads the pack by far, with 37 projects, of which 10 are operational (Canada: 14 projects, 2 operational, England: 9 projects, 2 operational) (Figure 1). In terms of technologies, low-temperature regeneration (46 projects) is outpacing electrochemical regeneration (17) and high-temperature regeneration (15). The average size of the capture projects is small. Until 2018, total capacities were negligible (below 1 Mt separated CO2), but it increasing rapidly since. In particular, from 2023 (7.4 Mt), total capacities increased to 44 Mt. The Technological Readiness Levels (TRL)
are very heterogeneous, the available data hints at average values of 4-6.
DAC is undergoing an impressive dynamic concerning pilot projects. This is mainly fundamental and some applied research on demonstrators. However, the step towards large-scale commercialization is yet to occur: 29 technologies are commercially available, but their impact on CO2 separation is still small. Further research should focus on these dynamics, i.e. from demonstration to large-scale diffusion.